The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have four major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 kilometers per hour), according to Colorado State University forecasters on Thursday.
According to the university’s Tropical Meteorology Project, 19 tropical storms with winds of at least 39 mph (63 kph) and nine hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph (63 kph) are expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
“Again, an above-normal hurricane season in 2022,” said Phil Klotzbach, who leads Colorado State’s hurricane season forecasting team, at the national Tropical Weather Conference, which was livestreamed online.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the average number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic between 1991 and 2020 was seven hurricanes, three of which were major, and 14 tropical storms.
The CSU forecast is consistent with private forecasts issued thus far this year.
AccuWeather Inc, a privately held company, predicts that between three and five major hurricanes will form in 2022, out of six to eight hurricanes and 16-20 named tropical storms.
DTN, a private forecaster, predicts 21 named storms, eight of which will be hurricanes and four of which will be major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
The forecasts are based on two factors: the absence of an El Nino weather pattern and higher-than-expected temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. El Nino weather patterns bring high winds across the southern United States, causing hurricanes to disintegrate.
“We don’t see any big trends that lead us to believe we’ll have an El Nino any time soon,” Klotzbach said.
If forecasts hold true this year, 2022 will be the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.
“It appears to have been busy, and that’s because it has,” Klotzbach explained.