CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today announced updated residential and commercial flood and wind loss estimates for Hurricane Florence. According to this new data analysis, flood loss for residential and commercial properties in North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia is estimated to be between $19 billion and $28.5 billion which includes both storm surge and inland flooding. Specifically, uninsured flood loss for the same area is estimated to be between $13 billion and $18.5 billion. Wind losses are estimated to be an additional $1 billion to $1.5 billion.
This analysis includes residential homes and commercial properties, including contents and business interruption and does not include broader economic loss from the storm.
- Insured flood loss covered by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is estimated to be between $2 billion and $5 billion.
- In these states, 445,000 total residential and commercial property policies are in force through the NFIP
- Insured flood loss from private insurers is estimated at less than $5 billion.
Insured loss represents the amount insurers will pay to cover damages. Unlike wind damage, which is covered by a standard homeowners policy, flood is a separate coverage, which is not mandatory outside the designated Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs).
For major Gulf and Atlantic Coast hurricanes that impact the U.S. this year, CoreLogic is planning on providing pre-landfall data for the number and associated reconstruction cost value (RCV) of at-risk homes as well as a secondary set of pre-landfall data for estimated insured property losses for wind and storm surge. For post-landfall data, CoreLogic plans to issue insured and uninsured property losses for wind, storm surge and additionally flood. Visit the CoreLogic natural hazard risk information center, Hazard HQ™, at to get access to the most up-to-date Hurricane Florence storm data and see reports from previous storms.
Methodology
The U.S. Inland Flood Model models all sources of precipitation-driven flooding including riverine, stream, off-plain, and flash flooding. It delivers a comprehensive analytic view of the risk, utilizing widespread coverage of hydrologic and hydraulic data that reflects regional flooding and drainage patterns. As flood risk evolves due to urbanization and change in baseline stream and sea levels, the flood risk methodology from CoreLogic is designed to stay abreast of the latest flood risk data and research, ensuring continuity of risk insights into the future.
The CoreLogic North Atlantic Hurricane Model includes improved location risk and estimation through its robust stochastic event set, high-resolution hazard modeling, component-level vulnerability, and usage of PxPoint™, the structure- and parcel-level geocoding engine. With detailed and rigorously validated model outputs, the model provides the ability to calculate damage contributions from wind and storm surge, providing a transparent way of looking at loss as well as to obtain a better understanding of capital adequacy for the separate or combined perils of hurricane winds and coastal storm surge flooding. The model offers a complete view of the risk for all perils and sub-perils. The North Atlantic Hurricane Model is updated biennially and has been certified by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) since the inception of the process in 1997.