In the last two years, 384,000 more people moved into than out of counties that are vulnerable to flooding — including many beach spots along Florida’s vulnerable coasts — representing an increase of more than 100%, according to Redfin data, as the pandemic and affordability crisis in the United States led people to ditch expensive cities and relocate, despite risks.
The number of people moving into counties that ranked in the top 10% for flood risk increased by 103% in 2021 and 2022 compared to the two years prior, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage and data collector, which identified at-risk counties and compared the number of people moving into and out of them.
Researchers for Redfin speculated that remote work and “record-low mortgage rates” in the pandemic led to Americans leaving expensive coastal cities for more affordable housing or more ideal temperatures in places like Florida and Arizona, despite concerns of extreme heat or fire risk.
In San Francisco, for example, the median home price in June was $1.4 million, but in Fort Myers, Florida, the median price is $410,000, while in Gilbert, Arizona, it’s $625,000.
Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said it’s “human nature to focus on current benefits” over benefits that happen over time, like property damage or decreased property value, adding that it’s also human nature to discount risks that are tough to measure, like climate change.”
BIG NUMBER
60,000. That’s about how many more people moved into than out of Lee County, Florida—including Fort Myers, which had areas almost entirely underwater during Hurricane Ian in September, 2022. The county, in which half of the homes are at high flood risk, saw a 65% increase in migration compared to the last two years.
CONTRA
The only two areas Redfin identified that went against the trend of Americans moving to areas for a good deal despite their proximity to disasters were Paradise, California, and parts of Louisiana. Orleans Parish and Jefferson Parish—the two areas surrounding New Orleans, both of which face high flood risk—saw about 15,000 more people leave than arrive in the last two years, continuing the trend of people fleeing after disaster for Louisiana. The California county home to Paradise, California—which was ruined by the Camp Fire five years ago—has also lost about 2,000 more people than it gained. Just after the fire in 2019 and 2020, the county had a net outflow of 17,000 people.