As Jesus Rojas lifts the hood of a 2014 Honda Civic to inspect its engine, the pungent odor of motor oil and grease wafts through the air at JR Automotive in San Francisco.
Automobiles powered by gasoline have hundreds of moving parts and other components that keep mechanics like Rojas busy. Rojas, 42, has spent a significant portion of his life honing the specialized skills required to inspect and repair them.
However, as California transitions to electric vehicles in its fight against climate change and air pollution, these skills will become increasingly obsolete over the next decade. Because electric vehicles require far less maintenance and repair than traditional combustion engines, the state predicts that nearly 32,000 auto mechanic jobs will be lost in California by 2040.
“I’m not against electric vehicles,” said Rojas, who moved to the Bay Area as a teenager from Mexico and opened his own shop 11 years ago. “I’ve always loved cars and will continue to work on them until I can’t. As a result, we must adapt. We must step outside of our comfort zones.”
California’s proposal to phase out all new gas-powered cars by 2035, in an effort to transition to a carbon-neutral, climate-friendly state, will drive a wide-ranging workforce transition.
According to the California Air Resources Board’s calculations, the mandate will cost the economy an estimated 64,700 jobs. On the other hand, an estimated 24,900 jobs would be gained in other sectors, resulting in a net loss of 39,800 jobs by 2040, a negligible amount across the state’s entire economy.
However, no single industry in the state would suffer more than auto mechanics: The air board estimates that if the mandate goes into effect, more than half of California’s auto service technicians and mechanics will lose their jobs over the next two decades.
The transition would take a decade to complete: Beginning with models in 2026, 35% of new cars and light-duty trucks sold in California would be zero-emission, increasing to 51% in 2028, 68% in 2030, and 100% in 2035. The board will hold a hearing on the proposal on June 9 before voting on it in August.
Alex Dirige, 67, a Guam immigrant who has worked as a mechanic in San Francisco for more than 30 years, is concerned that the transition to electric vehicles will jeopardize the livelihoods of vulnerable groups such as undocumented immigrants and drive many auto repair workers out of the industry entirely.
Many workers in California with no college diploma rely on the trade for a steady and reliable income. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, mechanics in the state earn an average of $26 per hour or $54,190 per year.
“With hybrids and electric cars coming out, many mechanics who have started working see that there is no long-term future in the auto repair business,” Dirige said. “The market for electric vehicle repair is almost non-existent. Many of them would like to work in the field, but they may choose to pursue other opportunities.”
Who loses and who gains employment?
California is already feeling the effects of climate change, which is harming its economy as well as its public health and environment. Transportation accounts for 40% of its greenhouse gas emissions, the highest of any sector, so state leaders say reducing reliance on gasoline and shifting to electric vehicles is critical to avoiding even more disastrous consequences.
As the state transitions to zero-emission vehicles, some industries gain jobs while others lose them.
The retail trade sector, which includes gas station employees and automobile and parts dealers, would lose 38,669 jobs by 2040, accounting for approximately 2% of the retail workforce. The majority of the losses would occur at gas stations. As the fleet of electric vehicles grows, air board officials anticipate that gas stations will provide charging to offset the losses.
Some of the loss in the retail sector can be attributed to lower disposable income. Electric cars are currently more expensive to purchase, but prices will fall and maintenance will be much less expensive, saving about $3,200 for the life of a 2026 car and $7,500 for a 2035 car, according to the air board.
Because of the decrease in gas tax revenue, another 20,831 jobs in state and local government would be lost.
However, the transition to electric vehicles will generate thousands of new jobs. As car owners spend more on electricity to power their vehicles, Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas & Electric, and other power industry companies would benefit the most, with the creation of approximately 5,600 jobs by 2040. Insurance companies will gain approximately 1,700 new jobs, while the construction industry will gain approximately 3,600.
Because California produces few vehicles, the state is unlikely to see a surge in production in response to the mandate. According to a 2021 report from the International Council on Clean Transportation, a nonprofit research organization, the majority of the 44 major auto assembly plants in the United States are located in the Midwest and the South.
A ‘slow-moving’ shift
Internal combustion engine mechanics would still have plenty of work: The rule would not prohibit the sale of used cars, nor would it require residents of the state to abandon the roughly 29 million gas-powered vehicles already on the road. Californians may also continue to import new or used vehicles from other states.
According to James Sallee, an economist and research associate at the Energy Institute at the University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, this means Californians will continue to own a large number of gas-powered cars past 2035, softening the blow for car mechanics and industries reliant on fossil fuels.
According to Sallee, the changes will not occur quickly enough to cause a significant economic slowdown in the auto repair industry.
“We believe the most harm is done to workers when there are quick and rapid changes because they can’t relocate freely and quickly,” Sallee said. “So it’s critical that people keep in mind that this is a slow-moving process, not a dramatic and lightning-fast shift away from demand for gasoline stations or oil changes. It will be something that takes place over a longer period of time.”
Electric vehicles use fewer fluids, such as engine oil, and have fewer moving parts than conventional vehicles. According to the US Department of Energy, regenerative braking extends the life of brake systems by converting energy from the brake pads into electricity to recharge the battery. They lack mufflers, radiators, and exhaust systems as well.
However, auto mechanics warn that while most operating and maintenance costs for electric vehicles are lower, some parts may be more expensive to replace. Rojas also stated that electric car owners may face issues that they haven’t considered yet.
Because electric vehicles are heavier than conventional vehicles, they require special tires that can support a heavier load. According to Rojas, these can cost between $200 and $300 per tire, compared to the $50 to $150 average for a gas-powered car.
Other services, such as replacing a windshield on a Tesla, which has sensors and computerized features, could cost anywhere from $1,100 to $2,000, he said, compared to $200 to $500 for a conventional car’s windshield.
“Because the car is still under warranty from the dealership, nothing comes out of pocket right now,” Rojas explained. “However, as the vehicle gets older, they will become more expensive.”
Despite the fact that sales of zero-emission vehicles have been steadily increasing in recent years, Californians continue to primarily drive gas-powered vehicles. In 2021, electric cars accounted for about 3% of all vehicles on the road but 12.4% of auto sales.
Some mechanics are skeptical that consumer behavior will change as quickly as the air board believes. The plan would necessitate a major overhaul of new charging stations and building codes.
“Making all of these changes by 2035 is nearly impossible,” Dirige said. “We lack the infrastructure to transition to all-electric vehicles. We barely have it right now. And, if you ask people, they’re afraid they’ll end up with a car that runs out of electricity and leaves them stranded somewhere.”
Mechanics will need to learn new skills or find new jobs.
Rojas and his business partner, Raul Perez, employ two other Latino immigrants who perform routine services like oil changes and tuneups.
According to Rojas, mechanics must invest thousands of dollars of their own money to purchase specialized equipment and tools. Some people may be able to use their existing tools and skills to service electric vehicles, as the vehicles will still require cosmetic repairs, tire rotations, and battery inspections.
However, many people will be unable to afford retraining for a new career or learning new skills in complex areas such as electrical engineering, which is required to repair hybrid and electric vehicles.
“If the government is interested in assisting us economically in retraining, it could really help people who are struggling but want to learn,” he said.
State leaders, according to Shane Gusman, a lobbyist for the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, should help fund the retraining of workers who lose their jobs as a result of the state’s efforts to combat climate change.
“Unions are not impeding responsible policies to protect the environment and slow climate change,” he said. “However, we must all consider the impact on workers. We must try to devise policies that protect the workforce, which in turn protects our economy.”
In order to reduce job losses from its zero-emission vehicle mandate, the air board suggests in its report that “policy options for job retraining and transfer support, particularly for lower income individuals” be considered.
San Mateo Democrat State Senator Josh Becker agreed. He stated that the “path to zero must foster new well-paying, secure, middle-class jobs, as well as work to transition those from fossil fuels industries.”
“It is true that it is easier to talk about the energy transition when it is not threatening our own jobs,” he said.
Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi, who chairs the Joint Legislative Committee on Climate Change Policies, introduced Assembly Bill 1966, which would establish a state fund to assist in the retraining and transition of workers from the fossil fuel industry to non-polluting sectors. He also stated that the funds would provide wage replacement and insurance, as well as pension guarantees, health care options, and peer counseling.
However, the bill would not benefit auto mechanics.
“We all know how difficult change can be for anyone,” he said. “We must make the transition to a clean energy economy without leaving anyone behind.”
A “just transition” roadmap is also being developed by the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research to guide state policies.
For the time being, Rojas said he is focused on the day-to-day operations of his company. The shop is busy, servicing 40 to 50 cars per week, and Rojas and his team are seeing an increase in hybrid vehicles. He stated that he supports the state’s plan and hopes that other workers in his industry will follow suit.
“This industry is constantly changing,” Rojas said. “But many mechanics don’t want to change; they just want to do what they’re good at, which is a problem. We need people who are eager to learn because we must adapt.”