Fitch Ratings expects reinsurance rates in catastrophe-related lines of business to rise by more than 10% when contracts are renewed in January 2022, supporting the improving sector outlook for 2022. In January, two-thirds of non-facultative reinsurance business is typically renewed, with a regional focus on Europe. Rising prices, the prospect of a strong economic recovery, and lower pandemic-related losses are key reasons why we believe the sector’s outlook for 2022 is improving. Our forecast assumes only a temporary increase in inflation.
We anticipate double-digit percentage premium rate increases for property catastrophe coverage in 2022, owing to insured losses of around USD100 billion in 2021 and the prospect of natural disaster claims becoming more frequent and severe. Price increases are expected to be most pronounced in Central Europe, which was hit by severe floods in July 2021, resulting in around EUR10 billion in insured claims after several years of relatively low natural disaster activity.
We also anticipate double-digit price increases for lines such as cyber risk and directors and officers (D&O) liability insurance. Cyber liability has seen a significant increase in claims, most of which are, but are not exclusively, related to ransomware attacks. Tighter terms and conditions, as well as capacity withdrawal, add to the upward pressure on rates. As courts reopen following the expiration of stringent lockdown measures, D&O is confronted with a cyclical pick-up in social inflation. Furthermore, we anticipate risks from contested health and safety measures related to the coronavirus pandemic, as well as liability risks related to environmental, social, and governance aspects.
We expect 2022 to be the fifth consecutive year of price increases, though growth will be slower than in 2021 because non-loss-affected lines of business are expected to show broadly stable price development. Attractive rates and healthy underwriting margins will continue to attract new capital, limiting future price increases beyond 2022.
Nonetheless, rate increases in 2021 and 2022 will help to boost the sector’s underwriting profitability by gradually feeding into reinsurers’ underwriting margins. Higher prices make the industry more resilient to the negative effects of climate change on natural disaster claims patterns as well as declining investment returns.