Homicide and most other violent crimes are continuing to decline in American cities but remain at elevated levels compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new midyear report Thursday from the Council on Criminal Justice.
“The decline we see across the major crime categories is encouraging, but our country should not be comfortable with rates of violence that continue to claim thousands of lives each year,” said study co-author Richard Rosenfeld, a professor emeritus at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, in a news release.
At the same time, motor vehicle thefts remain on the rise, according to the think tank, which has hundreds of members focused on criminal justice policy.
The report examines monthly crime rates for 10 violent, property and drug offenses in 37 cities – including some of the nation’s largest – but not all cities reported data for each offense.
It’s the latest attempt by researchers to paint a national picture of crime trends at a time when the United States doesn’t have reliable federal data on the topic and public safety is top-of-mind for many Americans.
Homicides decline but remain elevated
Based on data from 30 cities, homicides are down 9% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same time period last year, the report found.
Twenty of the cities documented declines in homicides, including Los Angeles; Chicago; Phoenix; Philadelphia; Austin, Texas; Jacksonville, Florida; and Denver, among others. Ten cities saw increases, including New York, Seattle and Washington.
Homicides began to surge in 2020 and reached a high in 2021. While levels have begun to decline again, homicides remained 24% higher in the first half of 2023 than in the first half of 2019, according to the report.
Gun assaults, robberies decline
A host of other categories of violent crimes all fell by single digits in the first six months of the year, compared to the same timeframe last year, the report found. But the researchers offered the data with caution, as varying numbers of cities reported data in each category.
- Gun assaults decreased by 6%, based on data from 10 cities.
- Robberies decreased by 4%, based on data from 33 cities.
- Nonresidential burglaries decreased by 5%, based on data from 16 cities.
- Residential burglaries decreased by 4%, based on data from 16 cities.
- Larcenies decreased by 4%, based on data from 31 cities.
- Aggravated assaults decreased by 3%, based on data from 25 cities.
Two types of crimes increased by single digits over the same period.
- Drug offenses increased by 1%, based on data from 21 cities.
- Domestic violence increased by 0.3%, based on data from 11 cities.
Motor vehicle thefts increase in 23 cities
Motor vehicle thefts began to rise at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and have continued to increase.
In the first half of the year, motor vehicle theft rose by about 34% compared to the same period in 2022, based on information from 32 cities, the report found. That amounts to nearly 24,000 more stolen vehicles.
Of those cities, 23 reported increases, and seven saw an increase of 100% or more: Rochester, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Chicago, Memphis, Washington and Durham.
Motor vehicle thefts were 104% higher compared to the first half of 2019, the report found.
A problem with federal data
The Council on Criminal Justice report aims to help fill the void of timely and representative national crime data in the United States.
The FBI has historically collected voluntary data from local law enforcement agencies for its nationwide crime reports. But, in 2021, the FBI switched over to a newer reporting system, and only about 65% of agencies submitted data.
The FBI expects participation to increase in the future as more agencies transition to the system.
The 37 cities included in the report are: Albuquerque, New Mexico; Arlington, Texas; Atlanta; Austin, Texas; Boston; Buffalo, New York; Chandler, Arizona; Chattanooga, Tennessee; Chicago; Cincinnati; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Denver; Detroit; Durham, North Carolina; Jacksonville, Florida; Lincoln, Nebraska; Little Rock, Arkansas; Los Angeles; Memphis, Tennessee; Minneapolis; Nashville-Davidson, Tennessee; New York; Norfolk, Virginia; Omaha, Nebraska; Philadelphia; Phoenix; Pittsburgh; Raleigh, North Carolina; Richmond, Virginia; Rochester, New York; San Francisco; Seattle; St. Louis; St. Paul, Minnesota; St. Petersburg, Florida; Virginia Beach, Virginia; and Washington.